Amazon Scenarios

Smoky boundary between forest and field

The Amazon Scenarios project integrates all of the Center’s activities in the Amazon Region. This is an important project because economic and political forces are rapidly transforming the forests of the Amazon basin, precipitating one of the world’s greatest environmental crises. Prevailing trends could lead towards one of two contrasting scenarios for the basin’s native ecosystems, wildlife and fisheries: a business-as-usual scenario (BAU scenario) in which the forces of destruction continue unopposed or a frontier governance scenario in which society and government, together with the scientific and environmental communities, work to control frontier expansion and insure the ecological integrity of the basin (Governance scenario). The challenge of Amazon conservation is to find ways to redirect the political and economic forces towards this second, sustainable future scenario, conserving most of the forest for centuries to come.

Understanding linkages to foster conservation

Mosaic of forest and agriculture

Achieving a governance scenario in the Amazon will require new advances in our understanding of the complex linkages between human activities, such as deforestation, logging, agriculture, the region’s climate and rainfall patterns, fire dynamics and their impact ecological variables. For instance, current knowledge suggests that most of the region’s forests must remain standing to maintain the rainfall patterns, a crucial element for most life forms in the region. Half of the Amazonia’s forests are highly vulnerable to changes in the region’s climate, receiving just enough rainfall to remain green and resistant to fire. Small reductions in rainfall can push these forests tip the balance, make them more susceptible to fire, and impact their role in creating rain clouds. The risk of fire and drought is enhanced by logging, which opens the forests, and by farmers and ranchers who use fire to replace rainforests with crops and pastures. A brutal downward spiral of drought, forest fire, and further drought could expand across much of the Amazon, replacing the species-rich rainforest with savanna like vegetation. The protection of Amazon wilderness within biological reserves may depend upon preventing this cycle and maintaining forest cover across most of the region.

A 'Businessman's View' of Amazonia

An effective strategy for conserving the Amazon rainforest will depend upon rapid advances in our understanding of the linkages between the Amazon’s forests, climate, and economies. We are carrying out research that will address challenging questions such as: what spatial arrangements of forest cover are necessary to protect the Amazon’s rainfall system and avoid degradation? How can the region’s economic prosperity increase, alleviating social pressures, without threatening these linkages? How can the region’s biodiversity be maintained?

Unproductive deforestation

At the core of our Scenarios research is an integrated, computer-based model system that simulates the complex interactions among Amazon ecosystems, economies and climate, and allows us to assess the potential effectiveness of olicy interventions and reserve designs in avoiding forest destruction. The Scenarios model will be used to determine the effects of future trajectories of frontier expansion on populations and ranges of mammal and bird species, and on the aquatic ecosystems that are most sensitive to changes in land use. This will enable us to illustrate the ecological and economic costs and benefits of current and alternative trajectories of frontier expansion, increasing public awareness of these trade-offs and providing an important tool for planning.

This work is supported by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, by the Tinker Foundation, the National Science Foundation, and USAID. Institutions participating in this research include the Amazon Institute of Environmental Research (IPAM), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE), Boston University, Duke University, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and Yale University.

©Woods Hole Research Center, 2007