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Education | Forest Function | Global Carbon | Land/Water | Landcover/Land Use | Science in Public Affairs
Building Tours | Seminars | Global Warming Primer | Staff Essays | Published Literature | Related Sites
Agricultural Frontier Explosion in Brazil
In recent years agro-industry in the Amazon has experienced explosive growth, especially beef and soybean production. Soybean production in the Brazilian Amazon states grew approximately 60% between 1998 and 2002, and the cattle herd nearly doubled from 26.2 million in 1991 to 51.6 million in 2001 making Brazil the second largest soybean exporter and the world’s major beef exporter. This increase in production has transformed the sector into the most serious threat to the Amazon environment, becoming the main drivers of deforestation in the region. We are carrying out research on the dynamics of this agricultural expansion in the Amazon, in an effort to understand what drives this unprecedented growth. To that end we are analyzing and modeling trends in the soybean and cattle ranching sectors and are also working to help create possible mechanisms to lessen the impact of the expansion of the agricultural frontier in the Amazon. Understanding the drivers of frontier expansion
Part of this unprecedented growth in soybean and cattle ranching can be explained by domestic reasons such as the 2.7 fold devaluation of the Brazilian currency (the Real) since 1997 and by efforts to eradicate foot-and-mouth disease in much of the Amazon. However the growth can, mostly be explained by international factors such as increased international demand for beef stimulated by the mad cow disease outbreak elsewhere which increased demand for open range, grass-fed cattle such as those from the Amazon ; and by China’s economic growth, which has resulted in growing demand for soy. These trends are changing the profile of land use and deforestation in the Amazon, but they may also provide opportunities for new approaches to conservation on private lands. Cattle Ranching Expansion and Modernization
Until the early 1990s, the cattle ranching sector in the Amazon was not economically competitive and was excluded from markets outside of the Amazon by the occurrence of FMD. The low returns were due to poor quality of pastures, poor herd management techniques, and inadequate transportation infrastructure. Currently, foot and mouth disease (FMD) has been eradicated in a large region (1.5 million km2) of southern Amazonia including the states of Mato Grosso, Acre, and the southern half of the State of Pará. This has granted access to outside markets. In addition, the Amazon cattle industry has modernized. Ranchers are now using artificial insemination, tracking of animal origins and sojourns, and improved pasture management. As a result, the cattle ranching sector that was initially motivated by land speculation and the capture of fiscal incentives is being replaced by market-oriented beef operations, which prioritize quality and cost reduction. Currently, the Amazon is exporting beef to southern Brazil, where production prices are higher and they are beginning to export to the European market.
SoybeansUntil the 1980s, soybean production in the Amazon was almost nonexistent due to the lack of varieties adapted to Amazon soils and climate. Soy expansion into the Amazon and surrounding areas began in 1997 when new soy varieties were developed that tolerated the humid, hot Amazon climate. Soy production in the Amazon has increased at a rate 15% per year since 1999. Transportation Costs and ProductionStorage and port facilities are being constructed by the major soy companies present in the region including ADM, Bünge Borg, Cargill, and Grupo Maggi, to make possible soy export via ports along the main channel of the Amazon River. Use of river transportation began in 2002, lowering transportation costs, and making the sector more competitive. The process of lowering transportation costs will be accelerated as all-weather roads are paved into the core of the region, connecting the soy-producing regions in southeastern Amazonia with these ports in Santarém and Itacoatiara . As with beef, the mad cow disease outbreaks increased demand for soybeans as a source of protein in cattle rations. Europe’s soy imports from Brazil have grown by 15% between 1999 and 2003. The Chinese economy, which has grown 9% per year in the same period, has also bolstered international demand for soy. Brazilian soy exports to China increased from one million tons to four million tons between 1999 and 2003. In 2003, China imported 21 million tons of soybeans, 10% of world production and 83% more than it imported in 2002. Twenty nine percent of this soy came from Brazil.
One result of these connections between the international economy and Amazon development is a rising rate of deforestation in the Amazon. Two of the largest deforestation rates on record took place in 2002 (23,000 km2) and 2003 (24,000 km2). This acceleration in deforestation has other effects besides loss of forest habitat, including releasing an addition 60 to 80 million tons of carbon to the atmosphere, and threatening the local and regional climate. Cattle ranching is still the primary driver of deforestation, nevertheless the soybean industry also promotes deforestation indirectly by displacing cattle ranching farther into the agricultural frontier. So, although much of the expansion of soy production in the forest regions of northern Mato Grosso’s forest region — about 2,500 km2 in 2002—takes place in lands previously cleared for cattle pasture, it still contributes indirectly to deforestation. A challenge and an opportunity
The fast expansion of the agricultural frontier in the Amazon changes the picture of development and conservation in the region. The economic forces driving forest conversion have become more powerful, threatening to repeat the world’s legacy of agricultural replacement of the great forests. Protection of the Amazon’s ecosystem, climate, biodiversity, indigenous cultures, and the health of its rivers and streams will require the maintenance of most Amazon forests. But in those Amazon regions where cattle ranching and agro-industry are lucrative it will be difficult to prevent forest conversion purely through command and control approaches. We are carrying out research and working with partner organizations in Brazil to evaluate mechanisms that could lessen the environmental impact of the expanding agricultural frontier including:
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©Woods Hole Research Center, 2007 |
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