|
NASA USES A "SLEUTH" TO PREDICT URBAN LAND USE
 |
|  |
| Item
1 | | According
to NASA-funded researchers, developed land in the greater Washington-Baltimore
metropolitan area is projected to increase 80 percent by 2030. Scientists used
a computer-based decision support model loaded with NASA and commercial satellite
images to simulate three policies affecting land use. The
researchers, Claire Jantz and Scott Goetz, from the University of Maryland, College
Park, Md., and the Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole, Mass., also found a
39 percent increase in developed land in the region from 1986 to 2000. Some of
the most striking changes occurred around the Dulles Airport area in Northern
Virginia.
| 
Item
2 - Top image is Washington DC
in 1986; bottom image is 2000
|
Observations
from NASA and commercial Earth observation satellites were used in a United States
Geological Survey (USGS) computer model, called SLEUTH. The model was applied
to 23,700 square kilometers (9151 sq. miles) of the Washington-Baltimore metropolitan
area. The initial aim was to simulate the impact of future policy scenarios on
the area and Chesapeake Bay watershed. "The satellite observations provided
us with an unprecedented ability to monitor the urbanization process and capture
the patterns of urban sprawl," Goetz said. The
study is in the March issue of Environment and Planning B. It explains how models
may be used to forecast the effects of urban growth and runoff on the Chesapeake
Bay estuary system.
| 
Item
3 - Top image is Baltimore, MD in 1986; bottom image is 2000
|
The
study showed how high resolution commercial imagery from Space Imaging's IKONOS
satellite can be used to complement NASA's imagery from Landsat satellites. IKONOS
images, with resolutions up to one meter (3.28 feet), were used with county-level
air photos to link to 30-meter Landsat observations, which cover vast areas and
offer a longer time frame for assessing urban change.
The project was designed
to study declining water quality in the Chesapeake Bay estuary due in part to
disruptions in the hydrological system caused by urban and suburban development.
The goal was to create a modeling system that could assess future development
and support decision making by exploring the potential impact of different regional
management scenarios. Future growth was projected out to 2030 using three different
policy scenarios. The scenarios were based on current trends, managed, and ecologically
sustainable growth.
|
|  |
| Item
4 | | The
current trends scenario simulated how the Washington metropolitan area might change
if development policies remained the same. This scenario included forest and agricultural
preservation already in place, leaving unprotected areas open for development.
In this scenario, development increased by 80 percent by 2030.
|
|  |
| Item
5 | | The
managed growth scenario assumed added protection of forests and agriculture areas
and placed moderate growth boundaries around already built areas. In this scenario,
development increased by 30 percent by 2030. In the ecological scenario, strong
protection of most forests and agricultural areas was projected, so development
only increased by 20 percent by 2030. "The
model is a tool that can be used for land use planning and resource management,"
Jantz said. "It offers the ability to explore and visualize alternative futures."
|
|  |
| Item
6 | | The
model is applicable to land use studies, and it has small to large-scale potential.
It can also help decision-makers assess the configuration of landscapes in forests
and urban areas, and understand sources of runoff related to water quality in
streams. The Maryland Department of Natural Resources is exploring use of the
model to target forest resources, restoration and conservation activities.
|
|  |
| Item
7 | | NASA's
Earth Science Enterprise is dedicated to understanding the Earth as an integrated
system and applying Earth System Science to improve prediction of climate, weather,
and natural hazards using the unique vantage point of space. NASA funded the study,
with additional funds from the Chesapeake Bay Foundation. Back
to Top | 
