Woods Hole Research Center

From 1970 to 1990, development in Maine occurred at 4 times the rate of population increase (Land and Water Resources Council, 2002). Between 1986 and 1993, some 30,000 acres of forests in southern Maine were lost to development and suburbanization (source: C-CAP). Statewide between 1992 and 1997, Maine converted 33,560 rural acres per year to development (Smith 2003). It is projected that Cumberland and York Counties will lose 195,000 acres of private timberlands and 46,000 acres of agricultural land by 2050. These lands will go into an estimated 208,000 acres of new urban lands (Plantinga et al. 1999), an increase of 56 %. Poorly planned commercial and residential development has been a major cause of losses of open space and of habitat fragmentation.

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Natural landscapes and ecosystems provide resilience in the face of threats from climate change, freely provide ecosystem services such as making soil, clean air and clean water, take CO₂ from the air while fixing carbon, offer space for recreation, and provide buffers against rising sea levels. Also, as study after study has shown, sprawling residential developments cost municipalities an average of 20% more in required services (schools, roads, fire protection, police) than they generate in additional tax revenues (American Farmland Trust, 2007). Finally, more commercial and industrial landscapes inevitably mean more impermeable surfaces, pollutants, and toxins. Intact natural landscapes are a significant part of Maine’s Quality of Place.

Housing density estimates by census tracts (above) are based on Hammer et. al., (2004). It is important to note that commercial and industrial construction is not modeled.

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Maine’s overall population growth is predicted to level off around 2020 but growth in bordering New Hampshire will continue. Other projections show a decline in the populations of northern Aroostook and eastern Maine’s Washington Counties. These declines will be more than offset by continuing increases in southern Maine.

Projected 1990 to 2015 percent population change (above). Again, southern Maine’s population growth rate is projected to far exceed the rest of the state, with York County, Maine's southernmost county, leading the way.

Projected development of private forest lands (shown here by watersheds) is expected to be most intense in southern Maine and southern and eastern New Hampshire (Stein et al., 2005).