Mapping & Monitoring
Landcover Change in SE Massachusetts
Southeastern Massachusetts is experiencing intense development pressures as the housing market recovers, as the cranberry industry struggles, and as developers become aware of the large amount of remaining open space in Plymouth and Bristol Counties.
In the long run, very large residential developments that are partially completed, and are being planned, will degrade the quality of life in the region for current residents. Future development will force remaining wildlife to retreat into more finely dissected habitats and major conservation opportunities will be lost. About 40 percent of the agricultural lands in the region have been lost since 1971. There has also been a 60+ percent increase in residential, industrial, and commercial properties since that time. Every indication is that these trends will continue. Air and water pollution will increase as more homes, vehicles, and businesses move into the area. More land will be paved and all the problems associated with sprawl will increase.
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1971 and 1999 Land Cover Maps The 1971 and 1999 maps were created using publicly available land cover data from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. These two maps show the change in developed land between the years of 1971 and 1999. The amount of developed land in Southeastern Massachusetts increased from 20% in 1971 to 29% in 1999. This region has also lost nearly 9% of its forested land during this time period. Although the percentage of land lost to development in Southeastern Massachusetts is relatively low, with respect to Cape Cod and other rapidly changing portions of the country, the potential of losing large tracts of yet undeveloped land in the upcoming decades is great.  1971 - Developed Lands  1999 - Developed Lands |
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Also shown on the 1999 map are protected lands. These areas are those tracts of land set aside and protected from development. Protected lands are much more than just recreation areas. They are vital cleansing engines for improving air and water quality, and they are the sanctuaries for our biological heritage, giving protection to locally, nationally and globally rare plants and animal species. The protected lands of Southeastern Massachusetts, though fragmented, are rich in species diversity, clean the air and clean the water and provide valuable open space for local communities. |
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Future Development Scenarios Maps Because the conversion of natural lands to developed lands poses significant threats to watersheds and other resources, predicting urban and suburban land use change provides a basis for understanding what incremental changes may mean over time. The two possible scenarios presented here for the year 2030 were created from a modeling approach that was trained by the pattern and the rate and extent of change of developed areas between 1971 and 1999. The model also considers changes in the road network between the two time periods and protected lands.  Scenario 1. Smart Growth Scenario 1. Smart Growth - This modeling scenario shows an increase of only 20% in the area of developed land over the 30-year period for an increment of 0.7% per year. Of all land (and water) in the region, some 50% would be developed whereas currently about 30% is now developed. To grow at this rate would require, of course, significant changes in the way we grow and higher density in almost all areas currently developed. To accomplish this we need to keep the growth in the area developed at the same rate as the growth of population, which has been about 1.4%/yr. since 1950. |
 Scenario 2. Unmanaged Growth Scenario 2. Unmanaged Growth - In this model run, we predict an increase in the developed land of 34% over the next 30 years or, a rate of about 1.1% increase in developed area per year. Of all land (and water) in the region, then some 63% would be developed whereas currently about 29% is developed. Bristol and Plymouth County Land Cover Statistics The three land cover types that have changed the most over the last three decades in these two counties are forest, agricultural and urban/residential. In total, 58,000 acres of agricultural land has been lost, as well as 111,000 acres of forest lands. Looking at the two individual counties over time, Bristol County, once 17% agricultural, is now about 8% agricultural. It was also 62% forested in 1951 and is now 52% forested. Urban lands only covered 11.5% in 1951, but now have nearly tripled to almost 30%. |
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| Bristol County | ||||
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1951 | 1971 | 1985 | 1999 |
Agricultural |
17% |
10% |
10% |
8% |
Forest |
62% |
59% |
55% |
52% |
Urban/Residential |
12% |
20% |
24% |
29% |
| Source: MassGis and McConnell 1975 |
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Similarly, in Plymouth County, agricultural lands have declined from 14.5% to 9% of the county, and forests have declined from 68% to 51% of the county. The amount of urban and residential land has nearly quadrupled and now comprises nearly 28% of the county.
| Plymouth County | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
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1951 | 1971 | 1985 | 1999 |
Agricultural |
14% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
Forest |
68% |
60% |
55% |
51% |
Urban/Residential |
7% |
19% |
23% |
28% |
Source: MassGis and McConnell 1975 |
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