Mapping & Monitoring
Maryland 2030
Maryland Scenarios
Building on WHRC work in the Washington, DC-Baltimore area, the SLEUTH urban growth model has been used to forecast urban development patterns in Maryland out to 2030. With collaborators at the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, Center scientists have conducted a vulnerability assessment of Maryland's forest resources to development under three alternative future scenarios. With data sets specific to Maryland, detailed excluded layers to reflect alternative future policy orientations were constructed.
The first scenario reflects current trends. All parks, wetlands, wetlands of special state concern, Chesapeake Bay tidal buffers and riparian buffers were included. All forests patches larger than 0.5 acres had a minimal level of protection to reflect the Forest Protection Act, and all Rural Legacy Areas were also protected from development. Priority Funding Areas and existing or planned public water and sewer extensions were used to specify growth areas. Areas zoned for restricted development were also added to the excluded layer, and new road construction was included.
The second scenario reflects a suite of policies that are realistically obtainable with considerable effort. This would entail a strengthening of the polices included in the current trends scenario, as well as adding protection to the natural resource lands making up Maryland's Green Infrastructure. No new road construction was included, but the heavy rail transit system (the Metrorail) was expanded.
The third "best case" scenario strengthens the protection on the resource lands described in the second scenario, but includes large tracts of contiguous agriculture.
Click images to view larger maps
Excluded layer for current trends scenario
Excluded layer for managed growth scenario
Excluded layer for "best case" scenario
Forecasts of Development
To create forecasts of future development (see images below), WHRC scientists initialized SLEUTH with the map of urban extent for 2000 and projected future growth using the parameter set derived for the Washington, DC area. In the current trends scenario for Maryland, development is highly dispersed, particularly through the central and southern section of the state, while the two subsequent scenarios result in more compact growth.
If the rate of growth that has occurred over the recent past continues into the future, the impacts on resource lands could be significant. Maryland DNR is particularly concerned about how development may impact forest resources.
Click images to view larger maps
Forecast of development under current trends
Forecast of development under managed growth policies
Forecast of development under "best case" scenario
This work was funded in part by the NASA Land Cover Land Use Change Program and the National Center for Smart Growth. Collaborators at the USGS provided technical assistance.
For more information on this work, please contact .
